(12/52) Weekly Market Insight | April Week 1 | Markets Expect TACO Soon – ChainUp: Leading Provider of Digital Asset Exchange & Custody Solutions

Headline News: Markets Expect TACO Soon

Bitcoin recorded moderate losses last week, pressured by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and a broader correction in traditional equities. The S&P 500 has declined 7.41% month-to-date, putting it on track for its worst monthly performance since September 2022. While near-term Middle East resolution expectations remain pessimistic, markets are increasingly anticipating intervention from President Trump to withdraw from the region, as the US 10-year Treasury yield approaches 4.5%, injecting significant stress into the financial sector and government debt.

Macro-Outlook: Threats on Bab al-Mandab Strait

Despite President Trump announcing a halt on military operations on Iran’s power plants until April 6, the escalation in the region over the past week has not de-escalated. Yamen’s Houthi Group threatened to close the Bab al-Mandab Strait, which handles 12% of global trade. Iranian officials dismissed the negotiations with the US, claiming they were cover for a ground attack, and created the “Hormuz Law” for a formal toll system in the Strait of Hormuz. Prediction markets expect a 70% probability that the US will deploy ground troops by the end of April.
Markets are currently pricing in a 25% probability of a rate hike in 2026, compared to just a 1.3% chance of a cut, driven by prolonged geopolitical conflicts and elevated inflation expectations.

The Upcoming Economic Calendar includes,

Tuesday, March 31 10:00pm: US JOLTs Job Openings in February
Wednesday, April 1 8:30pm: US Retail Sales in February
Wednesday, April 1 10:00pm: US ISM Manufacturing PMI in March
Friday, April 3 8:30pm: US Jobs Report in March

Weekly-Cryptos-Overview: Stablecoin Yield Compromise

The CLARITY Act reportedly made a compromise on stablecoin yield, restricting platforms from offering yield “directly or indirectly” or anything “economically or functionally equivalent” to interest in stablecoins while permitting “activity-based” rewards.
Tether signed KPMG (Big Four accounting firm) to complete its first full audit.
Securitize signed an MOU with the NYSE naming it the first eligible transfer agent to mint blockchain-native securities on the upcoming tokenized securities platform, advancing onchain settlement and market infrastructure.
Morgan Stanley Bitcoin ETF (MSBT) received official NYSE listing announcement, signaling launch is imminent and expanding institutional BTC access via legacy wealth channels.
Australia’s central bank stated that stablecoins and bank deposit tokens can coexist as part of its $17B national tokenization drive.
BitGo launched event-linked derivatives on its OTC desk for institutional prediction market access.
Whop, a social commerce platform, introduced Whop Treasury, letting users earn 6% yield on all platform earnings in a self-custodial account powered by Aave, Plasma and Moonpay.
FHFA ordered Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to prepare proposals allowing cryptocurrencies as reserve assets in single-family home loan risk assessments.

Layer 1 and Layer 2s

Bitpanda launched Vision Chain to tokenize EU markets, enabling compliant issuance/settlement for banks and fintech under MiCA/MiFID II using euro stablecoins for fees.
Canton Network announced Visa as its new Super Validator to advance privacy-preserving blockchain payments and stablecoin infrastructure for banks and financial institutions.
ZKsync partnered with BitGo to deliver a production-ready solution for tokenized deposits, combining institutional custody, wallets, and private compliant settlement anchored to Ethereum for banks.
Midnight partnered with Monument Bank to enable the first UK-regulated bank to tokenize retail customer deposits on its privacy-enhancing blockchain, targeting an initial £250 million in interest-bearing, GBP-backed, FSCS-protected tokens with shielded transaction data.

Dapps

Katana launched Katana Perps (following the acquisition of IDEX), a native perpetuals DEX built on structural/sustainable yield from Vault Bridge USDC rather than token emissions.
Silo Finance launched Silo v3, introducing isolated lending markets with protocol-level solvency guarantees via DEX liquidation when liquidity is good and Collateral-Debt Swap (directly transfers collateral to lenders plus fees) during a fragmented liquidity environment.
Derive activated onchain borrowing, letting users deposit collateral and borrow USDC at low rates directly on the platform.
MoonPay open-sourced the Open Wallet Standard (OWS), a local-first Rust-based protocol for AI agents providing one encrypted vault, unified signing across chains, and zero private-key exposure.
Ondo Finance partnered with Franklin Templeton to bring tokenized versions of its investment products onchain via Ondo Global Markets for 24/7 wallet-based access.
Particle Network upgraded Universal Accounts with full EIP-7702 support, making any app chain-agnostic; seamless EOA connection, gas abstraction, and cross-chain deposits.
Pudgy Penguins launched the Pengu Card in collaboration with KAST, making it available globally across 170+ countries with three tiers offering up to 12% rewards plus up to 7% yield.
Aevo launched PERPS+, bundling perpetuals with options into one-click structured products featuring enhancers for simplified directional trading without options complexity.
Birch Hill launched an onchain credit facility backed by Groma’s tokenized multifamily REIT, enabling permissioned borrowing of USDC against real estate equity via Yearn-curated Morpho markets on Base.

Governance and Upcoming Alpha

Balancer announced wind-down of Balancer Labs and kept the protocol under DAO framework, while proposing to route 100% fees to the DAO, halting all BAL token emissions ($500K compensation to veBAL) and an approximately $3.6M buyback program.
Venice announced a phased 50% VVV emissions reduction from 6 million to 3 million tokens per year starting May 1 2026 (May: 6M→5M; June: 5M→4M; July: 4M→3M) on the path to a deflationary token with native yield via increased revenue-driven burns.
Lido published a proposal authorizing the Growth Committee to purchase LDO using up to 10,000 stETH from the DAO treasury.
Aave published the ARFC for the Aave Will Win Framework, directing 100% of product revenue to the Aave DAO treasury, unbundling V4 activation and brand & IP protection, and detailed budgeting compared to Temp-Check.